SOYBEANS: Since the current bounce in the Jan soybeans has now exceeded the greatest duration of any rally since the Nov 14 high (6.05), a “timing” buy-signal appears to have been confirmed. However, because I can NOT label a completed decline of significance from EITHER the June, OR Nov peak, AND the 5.44 1/4 low does NOT correspond with ANY key support numbers, it is HIGHLY UNLIKELY that a substantial rally will develop here. In fact, IF the Jan beans can hold my best resistance cluster at 5.63-5.67 ½, then the most likely scenario here is that we’ve ONLY completed wave-(1) down, of a LARGER, (5)-wave-[5]th-wave decline. In this case, prices should easily reach the 5.32-5.22 support zone, BEFORE (wave-[5]) bottoms. On the other hand, however, in the event 5.67 ½ is exceeded initially, then we’ll have to conclude that wave-[5] down is EITHER developing into a DIAGONAL TRIANGLE, OR the entire drop from the June top is DOUBLE-THREE/WAVE-B. In either case, we’ll still need AT LEAST one more drop to new lows (-5.44 1/4), presumably within the next few weeks. Resistance (after 5.63-5.67 ½) is at 5.75 ½-5.81.
 

CORN: Although a “timing” buy-signal could be triggered in the corn, IF a new rally high occurs AFTER Tues Dec 6, the recent penetration key support continues to favor LOWER PRICES. Note, that the next lower area of good support is now at the 90.9%-retracement projection from the 1987-1996 Bull cycle, or 1.79 ½. However, because the long-range pattern continues to call for an eventual decline to AT LEAST BELOW the 2000 bottom (-1.74), a drop to the next lower support cluster at 1.71 ½-1.67 ½ is certainly possible. At any rate, as long as the MAXIMUM RESISTANCE at 1.97-1.99 1/4 holds in the Dec contract, or about 2.11 ½-2.13 3/4 basis Mar corn, we’ll hold short. The closest resistance, however, is now at 1.90-1.90 ½ and 1.92 3/4-1.95 1/4 Dec, and about 2.04 ½-2.05/2.07 1/4-2.09 3/4 in the March contract.
 

WHEAT: Again, even though the recent bounce in wheat may have produced a MINOR buy-signal, the overall pattern continues to favor a drop to AT LEAST the 2.88-2.84 level basis the nearby contract, i.e., BEFORE we actually see a larger, wave-[2] rally. However, because the far more significant long-term support numbers are actually at the 2.72 ½-2.65 level, the most likely scenario is that primary wave-[1], or CYCLE-WAVE-I will achieve this area, BEFORE a sharp bounce emerges. This support zone yields the 76.4%-retracement projection from the 1999 low, the THRUST-WAVE projection from the recently completed TRIANGLE formation, and depreciations of 38.2%, 27.25% and 23.6% from the last 3-significant highs. At any rate, in the event a larger, 1-week plus rally does occur BEFORE the 2.72 ½ level is reached, we’ll certainly be looking to add to our short-position. Resistance for the Dec wheat is now at 3.08 3/4-3.11 ½, 3.16-3.17 and 3.20 ½-3.23 1/4 max!, with the equivalent resistance for the Mar contract at 3.25 ½-3.28 1/4, 3.32 3/4-3.33 3/4 and 3.37 1/4-3.40 max!
 

COTTON: Given that everything continues to call for an eventual drop to the 42.45-41.55 level in cotton (nearby contract), we will continue to look for any opportunities to get short the market. However, given that the next support area is at about the 50.20-49.82 level in the March contract, we probably won’t see much of a bounce until then. This area yields the 76.4%-
61.8%-retracement combination from the 1986 and 2001 continuation chart lows, as well as the Aug bottom in March futures (49.80). Resistance for March cotton is now at 52.53, 53.23, 53.81 and 54.39.
 

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR
 

SILVER: [See Chart] While the overall pattern in silver indicates that we should remain focused on buying a multi-week/wave-[4] pullback...whenever it occurs, a rather important juncture is now at hand-in terms of the FINAL PHASE of the Bull market. If a wave-[4] correction/decline can occur from around the EQUAL WAVES-[1]-and-[3] projection, or 8.66-8.735 Dec and about 8.765-8.835 March, then the FINAL, [5]th-wave peak will probably still occur at our longstanding objective of 8.98-9.175 (nearby contract). However, in the event the current, wave-[3] section up remains in force until the 8.98-9.175 level is reached, then a MUCH MORE BULLISH wave-position will be indicated. Under this count, after a multi-week/wave-[4] correction occurs, wave-[5] will likely EXTEND to at least the 10.51-10.75 level. Support for the March silver is now at 8.445-8.415, 8.335, 8.295-8.245 (*best ?) and 8.11-8.035 max!
 

STOCKS: [No Change] Since a completed, (9)-wave pattern-up can now be effectively labeled off the Oct low in BOTH the Dow Jones Industrials AND the Dec S&P, I can now make a pretty strong argument for the completion of a MUCH LARGER, CYCLE-WAVE-B advance from the 2002 lows. In which case, given that a HUGE, CYCLE-WAVE-C decline could be underway, the MOST BEARISH position since 2000 could be at hand. So, as long as the Dec S&P does NOT trade back ABOVE the key 1265.90-1269.80 resistance area (by much), we’ll stay short. This area yields the 61.8%-retracement projection from the 2000 top, AND a 65.45%-
appreciation from the 2002 bottom. Pivotal support for the Dec S&P is now at 1250.40-1249.00, 1245.00-1241.90, 1236.30-1234.50 and 1228.50-1227.50.
 

COFFEE: Since the decline in March coffee has now reached the upper-end of the key 50%-76.4%-retracement/support combination from the 2001 and 2005 lows, AND a 34.55%-depreciation from the March 2005 top, or 95.25-to-93.25, another very important juncture is at hand. In essence, because I can NOT label a completed advance from the Sept bottom; at the Nov top, prices should NOT violate this support level. Otherwise, a HIGHLY UNUSUAL, 100%-retracement of the initial advance will be indicated. At any rate, since the intraday pattern suggests that prices still need to trace-out a small, wave-8 bounce, and then a FINAL, 9th-wave drop to new sell-off lows, we’ll probably have a buy recommendations for ALL TRADERS on Tuesday, i.e., assuming the 93.25 level has NOT been exceeded. Near-term resistance for March coffee is now at 97.25, 98.55-98.85 and 100.15.
 

COCOA: Given that the advance in March cocoa has now achieved the key 14.58%-
30.9%-retracement resistance combination from the 2003 and 2005 continuation chart highs, as well as a 23.6%-retracement from the contract high in March futures, or 1461-to-1487, the ideal area for a MAJOR DOWNTURN is at hand. However, because the intermediate-term pattern remains UNCLEAR, only HIGH RISK TRADERS ought to go short. Note, it is possible that prices will extend to the 19.1%-38.2%-30.9%-retracement combination from the aforementioned highs, or 1513-to-1519. Pivotal support is now at 1451, 1441 and 1431-1422.
 

OJ: In light of Fridays advance to new continuation chart highs in OJ (+$124.55), it looks like one heck of a bullish-pattern is unfolding...now. In essence, because the wave-progression from the Aug low now indicates that a MUCH LARGER, “five-wave rally” is developing, this market could really EXPLODE. Note, IF the current, (3)rd-wave section up is just 61.8%-to-76.4-the length of the Aug-Nov/wave-(1) advance, then the nearby contract should now be headed for EITHER 139.40, OR 145.15, i.e., BEFORE we see another multi-week pullback. So, if we happen to get a minor pullback from near-term resistance at 127.30-to-130.35 in the Jan contract, we’ll attempt to go long. Support for the Jan OJ is now at 125.35-124.95, 124.05-123.80 and 121.65-121.25
 

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 12/05/05
 

SOYBEANS: Keep the stop on short Jan beans at 5.68 3/4.
 

CORN: Traders/Hedgers (50%) can roll short Dec corn to the Mar contract, using a stop at 2.14.
 

WHEAT: Traders/Hedgers (50%) can roll short Dec wheat to the Mar contact, using a stop at 3.40 3/4.
 

STOCKS: Keep the stop on short Dec e-mini S&P at 1271.25.
 

COFFEE: High Risk Traders (HRT) bought Mar coffee at 95.15. Use a stop at 91.85.